The geopolitical dynamics of Southeast Asia are currently in the midst of a vortex of tension between the United States and China. This region, which is strategically located between two great powers, is a major concern in the shift of global power. A number of countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines, play an important role in determining how these dynamics will develop. The US, which considers China a major challenge to its leadership in the Asian region, has increased its alliances with ASEAN countries. Through initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Strategy, the US is trying to provide security guarantees and strengthen its economic relations with countries in Southeast Asia. For example, joint military exercises and military support in the South China Sea are key in building cooperation with countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam. Meanwhile, China is also not remaining silent. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) policy, China is investing heavily in infrastructure in Southeast Asian countries. These projects aim to improve connectivity and build deeper economic interdependence with these countries. However, this approach also raises concerns about debt that could compromise the economic sovereignty of small countries. In a maritime context, the South China Sea is the main battle map. China claims most of the sea, which is a vital and resource-rich trade route. China’s aggressive actions in establishing artificial islands and asserting territorial claims have made neighboring countries, including Vietnam and the Philippines, increasingly wary. The awakening of national consciousness among the people of the region is leading to increased collective resistance to foreign influence. Apart from military and economic aspects, socio-cultural factors are also the arena of struggle. The US seeks to promote democratic values and human rights, while China emphasizes the principle of non-intervention and respect for national sovereignty. This approach creates a polarization of views within ASEAN countries, which try to maintain balance and be independent from the influence of these two big countries. Negotiations regarding regional cooperation, such as RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), also reflect these tensions. While China plays an active role in expanding its influence through RCEP, the US chooses a bilateral approach with certain countries, reflecting uncertainty and the need to secure each country’s strategic position. Climate change is also an important factor in geopolitical dynamics. ASEAN countries face serious challenges from natural disasters, which can affect political and economic stability. The US and China, as the largest emitters, are required to play an active role in helping Southeast Asian countries face the impacts of climate change, creating opportunities for collaboration. Seeing the potential for conflict and tension, Southeast Asian countries need to emphasize their position. Multilateral diplomacy through ASEAN is an important platform to reduce tensions and avoid armed conflict. Mutually beneficial economic cooperation must remain the main focus to ensure stability and growth in the region. With diverse interests and challenges, Southeast Asia’s geopolitical dynamics present both opportunities and threats. Regional players must carefully navigate this situation, encouraging cooperation that can ease tensions and encourage positive developments for all countries in the region.
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